U.S. Government Shutdown Is Unlikely to Cause an Immediate Recession

U.S. Government Shutdown Is Unlikely to Cause an Immediate Recession

Federal government shutdowns have become so common in recent years that forecasters have a good read on how another one would affect the American economy. The answer is fairly simple: The longer a shutdown lasts, the more damage it is likely to inflict.

A brief shutdown would be unlikely to slow the economy significantly or push it into recession, economists on Wall Street and inside the Biden administration have concluded. That assessment is based in part on the evidence from prior episodes where Congress stopped funding many government operations.

But a prolonged shutdown could hurt growth and potentially President Biden’s re-election prospects. It would join a series of other factors that are expected to weigh on the economy in the final months of this year, including high interest rates, the restart of federal student loan payments next month and a potentially lengthy United Automobile Workers strike.

A shutdown would not just dent growth. It would further dampen the mood of consumers, whose confidence slumped in September for the second straight month amid rising gas prices. In the month that previous shutdowns began, the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence slid by an average of seven points, Goldman Sachs economists noted recently, although much of that decline reversed in the month after the shutdown ended.

Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said a government shutdown would not be a “game changer in terms of the trajectory of the economy.” But, he added, “the fear is that, if it combines with other headwinds, it could become a significant drag on economic activity.”

Biden administration economists have prepared detailed estimates of the damage a shutdown could inflict on growth this year, which do not suggest an immediate threat of recession, according to people familiar with the estimates who were not authorized to discuss them publicly. Administration officials declined to release those estimates this week.

Goldman Sachs economists have estimated that a shutdown would reduce growth by about 0.2 percentage points for each week it lasts. That’s largely because most federal workers go unpaid during shutdowns, immediately pulling spending power out of the economy. But the Goldman researchers expect growth to increase by the same amount in the quarter after the shutdown as federal work rebounded and furloughed employees received back pay.

That estimate tracks with previous work from economists at the Fed, on Wall Street and prior presidential administrations. Trump administration economists calculated that a monthlong shutdown in 2019 reduced growth by 0.13 percentage points per week.

After that shutdown ended, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that real gross domestic product was reduced by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019. Although the office said most of the lost growth would be recovered, it estimated that annual G.D.P. in 2019 would be 0.02 percent lower than it would have been otherwise, amounting to a loss of roughly $3 billion. Because growth and confidence tend to snap back, previous shutdowns have left few permanent scars on the economy. Some economists worry that might not be the case today.

Mr. Daco said federal workers might not spend as much as they would have absent a shutdown, and government contractors might not recoup all of their lost business.

A long shutdown would also delay the release of important government data on the economy, like monthly reports on jobs and inflation, by forcing the closure of federal statistical agencies. That could prove to be a bigger risk for growth than in the past, by effectively blinding policymakers at the Federal Reserve to information they need to determine whether to raise interest rates again in their fight against inflation.

The economy appears healthy enough to absorb a modest temporary hit. The consensus forecast from top economists is for growth to approach 3 percent, on an annualized basis, this quarter. But economists expect growth to slow in the final months of the year, raising the risks of recession if a shutdown lasts several weeks.

Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG, said she expected G.D.P. to rise about 4 percent in the third quarter, and then slow to roughly 1 percent in the fourth quarter. She said a two-week shutdown would have a limited impact, but one that lasted for a full quarter would be more problematic, potentially resulting in G.D.P. entering negative territory.

“When you start nicking away even a tenth here or there, that’s pretty weak,” Ms. Swonk said.

A shutdown could also further convey political dysfunction in Washington, which could rattle investors and push up yields on Treasury bonds, leading to higher borrowing costs, Ms. Swonk said.

Biden administration officials had hoped to avoid such dysfunction when they reached a deal with Republicans in June to raise the nation’s borrowing limit. That agreement included caps on federal spending that were meant to be a blueprint for congressional appropriations. A faction of Republicans in the House has pushed for even deeper cuts, driving Congress toward a shutdown.

Michael Linden, a former economic aide to Mr. Biden who is now a senior policy fellow at a think tank, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, said immediate economic effects from the shutdown could force Republican leaders in the House to quickly pass a funding bill to reopen the government.

“There’s a reason shutdowns tend to be pretty short,” Mr. Linden said. “They end up causing disruptions that people don’t like.”

A1L

A1O

https://saga.so/b1484ccc-c0a3-4d88-a518-0696a2534bfb

https://saga.so/e94f6d51-69a5-4e38-a088-48eab2d76d72

https://saga.so/cb053413-d946-40fd-8bb7-a1a01765b4a4

https://saga.so/s/6hRavvXV7eY-IcqZKfyE/d7f8f29f-5194-4c99-9749-b6de8bff1220

https://saga.so/c870ad73-5f4e-49a3-99ca-b644368319d0

https://saga.so/bbdadec6-f62a-48cc-8a52-ad82b76a9bd5

https://saga.so/aa6462a0-83b5-419c-97a8-085056c7c192

https://saga.so/d0dbb959-379e-4d2d-a014-63da096af6fa

https://soundcloud.com/japakkothenbeutellkfo-a5-8-76/goodbye-julia-2023

https://soundcloud.com/japakkothenbeutellkfo-a5-8-76/goodbye-julia-2024

https://soundcloud.com/japakkothenbeutellkfo-a5-8-76/goodbye-julia2022-hd-online

https://soundcloud.com/scharbroughdanicadul-v2-832/the-marvels-2023-web-dl-1080p

https://soundcloud.com/scharbroughdanicadul-v2-832/the-marvels-3-2023

https://soundcloud.com/scharbroughdanicadul-v2-832/the-marvels-32023-hd

https://soundcloud.com/five-nights-at-freddys-742195175/five-nights-at-freddys-2023-web-dl-1080p

https://soundcloud.com/five-nights-at-freddys-742195175/five-nights-at-freddys-2023

https://m.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.357056250131785&type=3

https://m.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.357056670131743&type=3

https://m.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.357056970131713&type=3

https://m.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.362448216245160&type=3

https://m.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.362447592911889&type=3

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1xcHF_H6Jwoy3YqztbDo7jXr1tMda3WFc?usp=sharing

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1aMnab-rTxZ-FPXY1HeCxawJsV2G_x7Ho?usp=sharing

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1UMjYea3LhNQN0D_-1w0IxYeO7cTVsEYe?usp=sharing

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1Qy2ZshHqtZnoFhw3QiifEaHAZ3mac16G?usp=sharing

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1Dt0d5Y6yX4SyXh6yAfgEXBjMVL3DSc4c?usp=sharing

https://baskadia.com/post/nd3b

https://baskadia.com/post/nd50

https://baskadia.com/post/nd87

https://soundcloud.com/doy-dognex/2023-1080p

https://soundcloud.com/doy-dognex/the-hunger-games-the-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-2023-hd1080p

https://soundcloud.com/doy-dognex/the-hunger-games-the-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-2023

https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/2e2351f2-893d-4bdc-bf09-6a160765de32

https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/86008639-a1f5-4759-81f4-d999c0f5af03

https://player.soundon.fm/p/7e7fc1e5-2e41-49a9-a740-4df35465ea68

https://player.soundon.fm/p/1eb259f5-810d-4a6f-95c4-a72e2e4642e2

https://player.soundon.fm/p/acb7930b-0da1-42fe-bfe5-e1bc36db5b17

https://player.soundon.fm/p/b0b39953-1551-4e21-84a4-8bfd1dd8f2e8

A1B

孤注一掷-線上看 完整版『2023』~4K線上看| 小鴨影音HD~1080p

【孤注一掷】- 線上看小鴨完整版 高清No More Bets」在线观看和下载HD~1080pL

【孤注一掷】-線上看-2023-完整版-HD~1080p

孤注一掷-線上看【2023】HD – 在線觀看 [HK-No More Bets] 線上看~1080p

看《孤注一掷》-線上看 完整版 – 在线观看[No More Bets]电影高清[2023]~4K

【孤注一掷】-線上看【2023】|HD~1080p 在线观看和下载~4K

粽邪3:鬼門開-線上看-2023-完整版HD~1080p

粽邪3:鬼門開【2023】線上看| 在线观看和下载~4K小鴨影音| HD-1080p

【粽邪3:鬼門開】- 線上看小鴨完整版 高清The Rope Curse 3」在线观看和下载HD~1080p

粽邪3:鬼門開-線上看【2023】HD – 在線觀看 [HK-The Rope Curse 3] 線上看~1080p

看《粽邪3:鬼門開》-線上看 完整版 – 在线观看[The Rope Curse 3]电影高清[2023]~4K

【粽邪3:鬼門開】-線上看【2023】|HD~1080p 在线观看和下载~4K

《私刑教育3》-線上看-2023-完整版HD~1080p

私刑教育3線上看【2023】| 在线观看和下载~4K小鴨影音| HD-1080p

《私刑教育3》線上看完整版HD~1080p – 在线观看【The Equalizer 3 2023】电影高清~4K

【私刑教育3】- 線上看小鴨完整版 高清The Equalizer 3」在线观看和下载HD~1080p

【伸冤人3】-線上看【2023】|HD~1080p 在线观看和下载~4K

伸冤人3-線上看 (2023) 完整版The Equalizer 3 完整版[4K/HD~1080p] 在線免費

伸冤人3-線上看 「完整版」[2023]高清电影HD~[1080P]完整的电影

【伸冤人3】- 線上看小鴨完整版 高清【The Equalizer 3 2023】在线观看和下载HD~1080p

¡REPELÍSPLUS!▷VER—The Equalizer 3 (2023) Película Completa

[Cuevana-3] Ver The Equalizer 3 (2023) Película Completa

¡VER!!—The Equalizer 3 Película Completa Castellano en Español Latino Gratis

[Cuevana-4] Ver—The Equalizer 3 (2023) Película Completa Online Gratis en Español latino

¡Flix—Ver The Equalizer 3 `El justiciero 3` (2023) Película Completa Online Español y latino

A1Y

A1E

A1P

A1R

↑PelisPlus-VER↓ Fast & Furious X Película completa-español en línea gratis

[REPELIS verFast X (Fast & Furious 10) PELÍCULA COMPLETA Español

[Cuevana 4]!* Ver Fast & Furious 10 (Online) Película Completa 2023 en Español y Latino

✔Fast X (Fast & Furious 10) (2023)🎬 PELICULA COMPLETA➤ ESPAÑOL GRATIS

VOIR ▷ Fast X Film Complet En Francais HD [Regarder]

Regarder Fast X Film Complet En Francais [En HD Regarder]

!VOIR,!! — Fast & Furious X en Streaming-VF en Français, VOSTFR COMPLET

FILM ▷ Fast and Furious 10 en Streaming-VF en Français

ASSISTIR Velocidade Furiosa X 2023 FILME COMPLETO

Assistir Velocidade Furiosa X (2023) Filme Completo Online

!Assistir Filme Velozes e Furiosos 10 Completo HD 2023 Dublado Online

Assistir Velocidade Furiosa X 2023 Online Gratis (Filme HD)

[ดู.หนัง] เงือกน้อยผจญภัย (THE LITTLE MERMAID – 2023) เต็มเรื่อง HD พากย์ไทย ดูหนังใหม่ 1080I

ดูหนัง เงือกน้อยผจญภัย (2023) เต็มเรื่อง HD พากย์ไทย THAI HD Quality

[ดูหนัง.THAI] เงือกน้อยผจญภัย (2023) เต็มเรื่อง HD พากย์ไทย ฟรี on ยูทูบ

รู้ไว้ก่อนดู The Little Mermaid (2023) เงือกน้อยผจญภัย เต็ม เรื่อง

PELISPLUS !MEGA La Sirenita Pelicula Completa (HD) Espanol y Latino

VER_La Sirenita (2023) película completa en español latino

Ver La Sirenita | PELICULA COMPLETA LATINO

VER_La Sirenita (2023) película completa en español latino

REPELIS] Ver Transformers: El despertar de las bestias (2023) Película Online

[¡PELISPLUS!]*—Ver Transformers El despertar de las bestias [2023] Pelicula Completa Online en Español HD

Mega!-ver Transformers: El despertar de las bestias (Pelicula) HD online en espanol latino

PElis NUE (4k) ver Transformers: El despertar de las bestias ~Pelicula completa HD

[ดู-ไทย] ทรานส์ฟอร์เมอร์ส: กำเนิดจักรกลอสูร [TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS-2023] – ดูหนังออนไลน์ (1080P) พากย์ไทย เต็มเรื่อง

ดู-หนัง!*] Transformers 2023 (ทรานส์ฟอร์เมอร์ส : กำเนิดจักรกลอสูร) ดูหนังออนไลน์ HD พากย์ไทย 1080p

ดูหนัง ทรานส์ฟอร์เมอร์ส: กำเนิดจักรกลอสูร (Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts) ออนไลน์ฟรี HD พากย์ไทย THAI!

[ดู.หนัง] ทรานส์ฟอร์เมอร์ส: กำเนิดจักรกลอสูร (2023) หนังเต็ม HD พากย์ไทย [Transformers: Rise of the Beasts]

Assistir Transformers: Rise of the Beasts [2023] Filme Completo Dublado Online Gratis em Portuguese

[[*Assistir]] Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Filme completo [ 2023 ] Dublado Portugues Grátis Online

Assistir Transformers O Despertar das Feras filme completo Dublado online Legendado

ASSISTIR! Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (2023) Filme Dublado Online Legendado HD Grátis

Transformers : Rise of the Beasts Streaming VF 2023 Regarder Film-Complet HD

!4K-VOIR!!@ — The Beasts en StreamingVF||COMPLET, VOSTFR-Gratuits

[.^WATCH^.] Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (2023) FullMovie Free Online Streaming on 123𝓶𝓸𝓿𝓲𝓮𝓼

[*𝐅𝐈𝐋𝐌𝐒 𝐕𝐎𝐈𝐑*] Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (2023) Français Gratuit et VF Complet

A1G

A1C

A1X

Teh pucuk

A1s